I want to explore how different events in the Earth’s ocean and atmosphere affect the weather and climate in my part of the world in North East Kent, United Kingdom.
Weather forecasts are now excellent and very useful in their accuracy, but sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts offer much more to the traditional weather conversation because of their uncertainty and significance. Climate change is right there, as are political and scientific issues and extreme events. The language used can sound quite poetic too.
There is something profound in the realisation that we are all connected on this planet. The various meteorological and oceanographic authorities and institutes make available much information publicly and we are beginning to be aware that big climate and weather events like El Nino and North Atlantic Oscillation influence our weather. It seems interesting to note how distant events influence what is happening over our own heads. The scientists call these influences teleconnections.
I will start this exploration by an attempt to summarise graphically the current situation with respect to the teleconnections: Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). In my phase wheel as follows.
A quick summary of possible affects follows in the following table. There is much more to be comment upon in due course.
| Teleconnection | Phase | Typical Impact on East Kent |
|---|---|---|
| NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) | Positive | Mild, wet, windy winters; fewer frosts and snow events |
| NAO | Negative | Colder, drier spells; increased snow risk and blocking highs |
| ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) | El Niño | Mild, wetter winters; stronger jet stream may enhance storm tracks |
| ENSO | La Niña | Colder, drier winters; supports blocking and Arctic outbreaks |
| SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) | Event | Cold spells 10–20 days later; potential for snow and easterlies |
| SSW | No Event | Zonal flow dominates; milder, stormier conditions |
| MJO (Madden–Julian Oscillation) | Phase 2–3 | Atlantic storm enhancement; supports NAO+ |
| MJO | Phase 6–8 | Blocking highs; supports NAO– and colder outbreaks |
Some formal references are needed now. Information from those who know best.
There is much more to talk about. I suppose that is the point.
